Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
