Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.