Everyday Killings in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The average number of per-day murders each month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh administrative statistics. However, security experts have cautioned that murder numbers might not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This information was shared by the director of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had over these past months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that the previous month the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Violent cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an apparently steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

But, security analysts urged caution that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the rise in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive news if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally problematic because it may mask days when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.