Diplomatic Proposals Ready for Delivered to Moscow In the Coming Days, States Ukraine's President

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.